Existing Home Prices: Q2 UP 8.2% Over Q2 of 2014!

Posted on August 18, 2015 Updated on August 18, 2015

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that in Q2, the national median existing home price was UP 8.2% over Q2 of 2014. Single family home prices posted gains in 93% of metropolitan areas–that’s 163 out of 176–up from 85% of markets showing increases in Q1. The nineteen best-performing metro areas saw double-digit gains. The NAR’s chief economist attributes rising prices to rising demand brought on by steady rent increases, a slower than expected rise in mortgage rates, and stronger local job markets.

Funny about those rising rents. An online listing site’s analysis of rental affordability in Q2 reports renters are paying an average of 30.2% of their income on rent. That’s the highest percentage ever, looking at data going back to 1979. From 1995 to 2000, renters spent on average a little more than 24% of income on rent. Home buyers overall seem to have a better attitude about borrowing. A behavioral finance analyst found that consumers are now less financially stressed than they were back in January. He says the reasons are: the improving labor market, the prospect of future employment in higher paying jobs, and a rise in current earnings.

This Week’s Forecast

HOMEBUILDING UP, EXISTING SALES COOL, INFLATION OK, WE LISTEN IN ON THE FED… An engaging week this, as we get back to the housing market, expected to show continued growth in Housing Starts in July, but a small slippage in Existing Home Sales. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be very moderate, good for us, but bad for the Fed who would like to see more inflation before they raise rates. We may get some indication of when that might happen with Wednesday’s release of FOMC Minutes from the last Fed confab. Do pay attention.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Aug 17 – Aug 21

Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… A growing minority of economists see the Fed starting to hike rates in September. An October guess is now made by a thin majority of Fed watchers. An overwhelming majority expect a rate gain by the end of the year. Note: In the lower chart, a 38% probability of change is an 62% certainty the rate will stay the same.